Sunday, November 8, 2015

Made in China

     (1) Similarly to all aspects surrounding COMAC's C919, the FAA approval is more likely an issue of when vs an issue of whether or not.  I believe it's just a matter of time until the one of the western aviation authorites (FAA or EASA) will provide it's airworthiness approval to COMAC as long as it manages to obtain a type certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China.  There are reports that claim the CAAC is actually a lot tougher on its manufacturers than the FAA is in America (Perrett, 2013).  However, the FAA has its doubts about CAAC based on COMAC's earlier aviation expeditions, the ARJ21.  Now that the ARJ21 has finished its certification process (6 years late), as long as the jet itself doesn't kill anyone, the FAA might start to recognize the legitimacy of the CAAC.  That process, or rather its timeline, would have potential to end the C919 if it were banking singularly on international sales.  The Chinese aviation market has potential by itself to use up to 1,000 C919's in several of its own airlines.  Between that and the government backing, COMAC might stay around long enough for the C919 to prove itself as an efficient competitor to the A320, if not the B737, and could have some financial demand coming from other European customers, leading to western certification and potentially FAA certification as well.

     (2)The biggest issue for carriers in the US would be establishing a training pipeline that is certified by the FAA.  If that would cost to much, they could just outsource it to China! With some translation issues and language barriers, it could be cheaper to send US pilots abroad for the training program that was established by and certified in China.  The quality of pilots shouldn't decline, considering most of them selected for that position should've been raised under the FAA's guise in the private pilot, commercial pilot, and initial 121 or 135 operation phases.  As far as purchasing aircraft, the FAA's decision on whether or not to certify (or allow CAAC certification) is the biggest hindrance.  From a public relation standpoint, the aviation bloggers at CNN say "we will fly on the C919 as soon as it becomes China's 'Air Force One'" (Jiang, 2015).  There was skepticism in the beginning when COMAC announced plans to use composites on an airliner, the first of this capacity to ever do so.  The criticism was fueled further when they rejected the initial batch of composite material because it failed to meet the requirements set by the engineers.  Furthermore, other Chinese airliners have been called "death traps" by western press (Leighton, 2015).  I think its safe to say that from a public perception standpoint, the Chinese are taking on a monstrous endeavor, putting it lightly.  For US carriers, that monster is even greater because its their media and their regular customers that are making the negative noise surrounding this project.  Lastly, US carriers would be taking a small jab in the direction of Boeing's face if they were to begin purchasing these jets, another monster in the industry that could have an influence on the flying public as well.

     (3)COMAC has a great relationship with its airlines because the Chinese aviation market is growing extremely rapidly.  The Chinese recently committed to purchasing $38 billion in Boeing aircraft, and another $17 billion in Airbus aircraft to try to meet its flying demands.  COMAC is also a division of the Chinese government, specifically Avic, which builds Airbus wings to the French company's high appreciation (Perrett, 2013).  Furthermore, COMAC is a section of the Chinese government that is actively trying to assert itself as a technological powerhouse (Perrett, 2013).  With their booming economy, the financial backing won't ever go away, even if the C919 is a long run flop.  This brings us to the future of COMAC, the C929 and C939.  These are twin engine, twin aisle, widebody aircraft that are supposed to seat 300 and 400 people each.  With the delays and focus on the C919 (and how long it's been delayed), there is no time frame set on even developing these aircraft.  COMAC's Russian counterpart, UAC, claims that they'll have these two aircraft in service by 2025, but there aren't many other details available yet (Flottau, 2015).

    (4) I think other companies would choose not to get into the love triangle between Boeing, Airbus, and hypothetically COMAC.  The struggle that COMAC is going through and the growing pains it is encountering would be impossible to overcome without the Chinese booming economy and seemingly endless government support.  Further, without an intense gain in technology and materials, it's going to be more and more difficult to squeeze efficiency out of an aircraft in the same categories that the Airbus and Boeing aircraft have the current duopoly on (like the 777 and the A350).  Even the C919 has enough external parts and pieces that its hard to say that it will be as efficient as COMAC claims, since it runs the same engine as the A320 (CFM 56) with an American fuel system (Jiang, 2015).

     (5)The struggles of COMAC have Boeing adding dollars to their own portfolios in the years to come already.  In June, Boeing updated its 20 year forecast for aircraft sales by approximately 12-20 billion dollars above its earlier expectations (Reed, 2015).  With Airbus and Boeing splitting the widebody market at almost exactly 50-50, and only a 2.2 percent increase in domestic air travel over the next few years, the biggest buyer of Boeing aircraft is going to be the Chinese aviation industry. They made these predictions shortly after another delay in the manufacturing process of the C919.  I haven't found much from Airbus, but one of their officials say they couldn't see the C919 entering service in China until 2020, basically meaning that it's not something they have on their radar as an upcoming issue at all.

References:

 Flottau, J. (2015, June 16). UAC, Comac To Define Widebody Aircraft By September. Retrieved
     November 7, 2015, from http://aviationweek.com/paris-air-show-2015/uac-comac-define-
     widebody-aircraft-september

Jiang, S. (2015, November 2). China takes on Boeing, Airbus with new passenger jet - CNN.com.
     Retrieved November 7, 2015, from http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/02/asia/china-new-c919-
     passenger-jet/

Leighton, B. (2015, March 18). A Closer Look at the Comac C919 - Why Does it Exist? -
     AirlineReporter. Retrieved November 7, 2015, from http://www.airlinereporter.com/2015/03/ 
     closer-look-comac-c919-exist/

Perrett, B. (2013, December 16). C919 May Be Largely Limited To Chinese Market. Retrieved
     November 7, 2015, from http://aviationweek.com/awin/c919-may-be-largely-limited-chinese-
     market

Reed, D. (2015, June 12). Thanks, China: Boeing Gleefully Increases Forecast For Jetliner Sales To
     $5.6 Trillion. Retrieved November 7, 2015, from http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielreed/ 
     2015/06/12/thanks-china-boeing-gleefully-increases-forecast-for-jetliner-sales-to-5-6-trillion/

Sunday, November 1, 2015

AOPA, NBAA, ALPA, and the boys.

     (1) There are many organizations that have been established over the years that provide benefits to members of the aviation world.  Some of the most famous ones are the Experimental Aircraft Association (EAA) and the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) for general aviation.  Others exist for aircraft mechanics, airline pilots, and business aviation departments too.  Just about anybody with an aviation career can find an organization that provides its members with something beneficial and exciting, even if sometimes its for a fee.  As a pilot, the AOPA and the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA) are two that I think will be important for me to belong to as a corporate aviator.

     (2) The mission of AOPA is to protect the freedom of the American people to participate in aviation.  They do this by:


  • advocating on behalf of our members,
  • educating pilots, nonpilots, and policy makers alike,
  • supporting activities that ensure the long-term health of General Aviation,
  • fighting to keep General Aviation accessible to all, and
  • securing sufficient resources to ensure our success (AOPA, n.d.)
     The NBAA's mission is "to foster an environment that allows business aviation to thrive in the United States and around the world" (NBAA, n.d.).  The Association represents more than 10,000 companies and provides more than 100 products and services to the business aviation community, including the NBAA Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition, the world's largest civil aviation trade show (NBAA, n.d.).  

     (3).  AOPA uses information that has been compiled since 1939 to educate pilots (or non-pilots) about aircraft, safety, and how to get into flying.  They are always lobbying against restrictions on the general aviation community that make it more expensive or more restrictive on people that want to get started.  They've lobbied for radio frequencies, to stop president Nixon from "raiding" the aviation trust fund, and to prevent restrictions on general aviation flying during the oil embargo of the 1970's (AOPA, n.d.).  
     NBAA realized a need for representing a united business aircraft front in all matters where organized action became necessary to improve aircraft, equipment, and service; and furthering the cause of safety and economy of business aircraft operations (NBAA, n.d.).  They use information gathered from the companies they represent and their aviation departments to promote development of safer and more efficient technology.  Their yearly conference puts these new ideas on display for the business world to see.  There is a huge sum of money wrapped up in the research and development for the jets and their equipment, but the NBAA promotes this innovation by demonstrating the profitability that can be purchased through proper utilization of an aviation department for businesses.  

     (4) AOPA is a strong organization that is important to become a part of because it's mission is the centralized idea for all aviation enthusiasts from the bottom to the top.  Without somebody to represent the community, the government could provide undisputed arguments to apply extra taxes to aviation fuel, provide manufacturers with even more costly policies for manufacturing aircraft, and they could further limit the number or type of people that are allowed to become pilots to a degree that would cost the industry dearly.  The big airlines, that the government has no problem bailing out of bankruptcy, wouldn't have even remotely enough pilots to keep up with the demand of the flying public if it weren't for general aviation giving pilots the opportunity to train and fly in small, civil aircraft.  They government has no problem attempting to stop general aviation during times of oil crisis though, despite general aviation having 98% of all aircraft and only using 8.6% of civil aviation fuels (while 91.4% is used by the airlines) (AOPA, n.d.).
    
     NBAA does a great job bringing businesses into the world of aviation.  It's a difficult decision for a company to make because the price of creating and running a flight department is astronomical compared to most companies regular day to day operations.  That being said, the stress relieved by avoiding part 121 operation airports and schedules has provided immeasurable profits for companies that can move their executives all over the country on their own time.  People have the ability to show up to meetings in California rested and prepared from New York, and return the same day or the next day while traveling in extreme comfort.  These operations, though, are hard to maintain.  Many corporate pilots have been woke up by phone calls from the company saying the flight department is too expensive, and they are no longer employed.  It is important to be a member of the NBAA because they provide companies with resources to attempt to prevent things like this from happening.  In fact, they offer over 100 products and services to member companies including heavily discounted or free advertising and links to their websites from the NBAA website.  They also keep tabs on the industry, fight for regulatory actions that make sense for safety and the economy, and even for the environment.  The information they have keeps their members up to date on issues that could cause disaster industry wide, potentially, and they keep them informed on ways to make their voices heard.  They even have assessments for pilots and other department members to provide feedback on the living environment and the monetary compensation they're getting so they can make decisions as to whether or not their own departments should be changed, which is a huge reason to be a member for myself when just getting started in a few years.

References:

About NBAA. (n.d.). Retrieved October 31, 2015, from https://www.nbaa.org/about/

Mission and History of AOPA. (n.d.). Retrieved October 31, 2015, from
     http://www.aopa.org/AboutAOPA/Governance/Mission-and-History-of-AOPA